Wednesday, May 18, 2005
AND THE WINNER IS...
Villiaragosa by an absolute landslide.
The election is going to have a very direct impact on my workplace. You see, the Mayor appoints the Port Commissioners and Mr. Villaraigosa has promised to make wholesale changes.
I know what's good for me so I won't say who I was rooting for here.
But on a purely academic note, how did the race become 59 to 41%? It wasn't even close. Everyone at work was saying a toss up (Hahn is from San Pedro), but the LA Times had an 11(?) point lead for Villiaragosa. I didn't trust both sources so I assumed it would be somewhere in the middle... but this? This is crazy.
Actually. That isn't crazy. The next few months at work will be crazy.
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UPDATE: POLITICS AND THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
I love looking back at the conventional wisdom because everyone looks so foolish. But this time around, I get to eat my words.
I guessed that Villiaragosa would win a close race. He blew Hahn out.
I said that the LA Times poll was biased against Hahn but in reality, Villiaragosa did even better than expected!
I told everyone I knew that a low turnout would be good for Hahn. But LA Observed has the stats:
My only consolation is that there weren't many who were right. Nothing is ever won on paper, I guess that's why you still gotta play the game.
The election is going to have a very direct impact on my workplace. You see, the Mayor appoints the Port Commissioners and Mr. Villaraigosa has promised to make wholesale changes.
I know what's good for me so I won't say who I was rooting for here.
But on a purely academic note, how did the race become 59 to 41%? It wasn't even close. Everyone at work was saying a toss up (Hahn is from San Pedro), but the LA Times had an 11(?) point lead for Villiaragosa. I didn't trust both sources so I assumed it would be somewhere in the middle... but this? This is crazy.
Actually. That isn't crazy. The next few months at work will be crazy.
-------
UPDATE: POLITICS AND THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
I love looking back at the conventional wisdom because everyone looks so foolish. But this time around, I get to eat my words.
I guessed that Villiaragosa would win a close race. He blew Hahn out.
I said that the LA Times poll was biased against Hahn but in reality, Villiaragosa did even better than expected!
I told everyone I knew that a low turnout would be good for Hahn. But LA Observed has the stats:
Villaraigosa actually got more votes in 2001, but Hahn's collapse was utter. More than 120,000 votes he received last time weren't there for him on Tuesday.Turnout was 30% (as opposed to 37% in 2001) and it only made Villaraigosa's win stronger.
My only consolation is that there weren't many who were right. Nothing is ever won on paper, I guess that's why you still gotta play the game.
